Amid a great deal of uncertainty regarding the spread and case fatality of the novel coronavirus, named COVID-19, national security organizers all over the world are using a tough-minded geopolitical analysis to predict the worst-case scenario and what it would mean for the global strategic offset.
Five Statements on the Possible Future Situation
Here are some assumptions which will hopefully never happen, but which, based on the current state, no one can truly dismiss.
First, in spite of the exigent measures in China, the global spread of the virus has not been stopped. Just a few days ago, a total of 85 countries and territories had announced cases of infection. Secondly, it seems like COVID-19 is spreading from human-to-human contact that is no longer present only in Wuhan. Some say that the virus can spread from numerous locations in the world.
Third, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported a case mortality rate of 3.4 percent, which is worse than the seasonal flu. The ratio may decrease as most cases are mild and do not require medical treatment. Fourth, a tested and proven drug is 12 to 18 months away from being accessible, and a few months more will be needed to manufacture and globally transport massive amounts of it. Not to mention the fact that most experts believe a vaccine will not be useful in any case.
Last, social isolation only guards people if they stay isolated. However, physical isolation is the best brief measure now, but will no longer be necessary after the pathogen has spread through the world’s population.
If these five assertions are true, this is probably the beginning of a major COVID-19 pandemic that will last for months, kill hundreds of thousands of people all over the world, break the economic, travel, It and social engagement of the globe for a period, and deeply affect the stability of rooted political systems.
President Xi’s Response Might Cost Him
According to some specialists, this crisis could result in two different things: President Xi Jinping’s regime could see a short-term increase in power, but in the long-term, it could impact the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) effectiveness.
Early January reports of the virus were restricted in China, and false assurances were spread, claiming that the situation was being managed. President Xi seemed to be detached, until last month, by which time the level of the crisis was so massive that the president could no longer permit to remain personally disengaged.
Current reports say that approximately 7690 million Chinese are confined at home, forced by hundred of thousands of party members and the most massive People’s Liberation Army (PLA) mobilization since 2008, when the Sichuan earthquake took place. The Chinese response has functioned rather efficient to slow down the national spread of the pathogen, but this has been implemented in detriment of the economy and of potentially subjecting numerous CCP and PLA cadres to the virus.
The United States is Unprepared
President Xi must find a method of getting people back to work in a country where everyone will be impacted by the major economic slowdown and where the pathogen will still be active. Now, speaking about the United States as COVID-19 spreads in California’s nursing homes, a clear conclusion is that President Donald Trump did not think his way through how the government should equip for the outbreak.
Besides an obvious lack in developing functioning virus test kits, the government’s initial response depicted the deplorable situation the administration is currently in; there has been spending and reduction of the extent of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as the National Security Council’s views on pandemic crisis management, were abolished.
COVID-19 will eventually pass, but not before it would implement a major change in political, economic, as well as military powers around the world.